Time to Change the Rules

This essay is included in the new book from the Parliamentary Network on the World Bank and IMF: The Future of Work for the People we Serve. To sign up for the launch of the book as well as a conference on the future of work and inequality, click here!

Philip Jennings, General Secretary of UNI Global Union, the global trade union for the services sector, and ILO Future of Work Commissioner

Since 1947 the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists has published a doomsday clock. The clock tells us how close we are to human catastrophe. In 2018 the clock was set at two minutes to midnight. The closest since 1953.

At its inception the clock was based on how close we were to nuclear Armageddon, but a decade ago it was changed to take into account broader threats from which could bring irrevocable change to humanity from climate to tech change.

The nuclear ravings of Donald Trump and the rise of the populist right have pushed the clock closer to midnight, but we must not discount the threat to people and planet provoked by an unjust process of globalisation and the economic thinking that underpins it.

For working people the clock already stands at two minutes to midnight. The only way we can push back he minute hand is with a new social contract. We call on policy makers to choose a new growth model as a continuation of business as usual will fail people tomorrow as it does today. This age of digital transformation demands nothing less.

A snapshot of the global world of work

Let’s take a snapshot at the global world of work. The ILO 2018 World Jobs report confirms there are 3.2 billion people in work. Global unemployment is close to 200 million. The ILO estimates we have to create 600 million jobs in the next decade just to keep unemployment where it is today. The ILO says we are falling short.

Of the 3.2 billion a massive 42% (1.4 billion) are in vulnerable and precarious jobs. In the leading market economies, we are worried about the creeping “uberisation” of jobs where workers are forced out of employment and social safety nets, yet elsewhere it’s the daily reality for hundreds of millions. In developing and emerging market countries the numbers in vulnerable jobs are namely much higher, at 76% and 46% respectively.

The world has made progress to reduce extreme poverty, but we should not be complacent – the number of people considered working poor is on the rise almost everywhere. In developing and emerging markets 430 million people survive on US1.90-3.10 per day in PPP. In the USA, 80% of people in work survive pay check to pay check.

In many leading economies wages are stagnant and the labour share in the wealth produced is in freefall. In the UK, the trade union centre the TUC found that the only wage slump longer than the one we are experiencing today, was the 24 years between 1798 and 1822 “a period when Europe was ravaged by the Napoleonic Wars and their aftermath.”

The wage share has fallen, the wages link to productivity improvements broken and we have seen a corresponding rise in the share of wealth flowing to profit and dividends. It’s a world where shareholder values rule.

The neoliberal economic model has delivered for the few

As wages have stood still and precarious jobs grown so the wealth and income gap has grown. The evidence of a world of benefit to the top 1% of the population is all around us. Just 8 billionaires have as much wealth as the poorest half of the world’s population and just 50 companies hold a combined wealth of equivalent to 100 nations. When we look closer at the those top 50 and their supply chains we find a world of poverty pay and insecurity, where only 6% of the people were in direct employment with a hidden exploited workforce of 116 million.

A world where just 28% of the entire population have access to comprehensive social protection.
Women workers are most affected. Women’s participation in the labour market has stalled and gender inequalities in all its forms persist in the labour market. The World Economic Forum 2017 gender gap report concludes on current trends it will take 217 years to close the gap.

A decade on from the global financial crisis which cost 60 million jobs, youth unemployment stands at almost three times the adult rate with a concentration of young workers in low paid precarious work. As one worker said to me these are “bxxx sxxx” jobs.

There are many factors at work in this new world of work including climate and demographic and digital change. Digital change and its impact on the future of work and the conditions of working people has pushed its way up the global agenda.

It’s not just about the tech it’s also about the business model that underpins the changes happening. The concentration in global wealth is further exacerbated by digital business in terms of both market capture and the rise in precarious work. We have unprecedented business concentration. This is not a world of shrinking wealth. PwC calculate that global GDP will be 14% higher in 2030 as a result of AI alone.

Even so, in this time of abundance the business model of many in the platform economy was based on a drive to escape traditional labour protections and contributions to social safety nets.

A world of work in transformation

With these devastating facts, let’s look ahead a little, and to the job impact of digital change in terms of quantity and content. We have been assailed by the warnings of catastrophic job loss and major transformation in job content. An OECD 2018 study found that one in two jobs are likely to be significantly impacted by automation, and that 14% of jobs in the OECD are highly automatable thus affecting 66 million workers in the 32 countries studied. In addition, another 32% of jobs will change as a larger number of tasks that constitute these tasks can be automated.

The World Bank Development Report in 2016 looked at jobs at risk of automation in Ethiopia 85%, India 69%, China 77%, Argentina 65%, Nigeria 65%, Thailand 72%.

We may worry about the veracity of these findings, but all arrows indicate significant transformation in the world of work with the worry that the policy responses are not on the scale required.

Space does not permit to go much deeper, but big data, AI and management by algorithm, data protection and cyber security concerns, and their entry into the workplace propels us into a new labour relations environment.

Unions are taking a stand but are faced with the closing of democratic spaces to enable us to do our job.

As we mark the 70th anniversary of the UN Declaration on Human Rights the violations of workers’ rights have reached pandemic proportions. The 2018 ITUC survey of workers’ rights violations in 142 countries found 65% of countries exclude workers from the right to establish or join a trade union, 87% violated the right to strike, 85% violated the right to collective bargaining. In 65 countries, workers experienced violence and in 59 they were subject to arrest or detention. Inevitably the scope of collective bargaining has shrunk.

The global unions’ annual poll covers over half the world’s population. The message is clear. The race to the bottom is not fiction nor drama. It is a lived reality but many. Over 70% worry about losing their jobs, and just as many are concerned about the growing inequality. 80% say they are just getting by, and say the economy favours the wealthy rather than being fair to most people.

A world of work in transformation. Our policy responses have to meet the gravity of the times. The grievances expressed must not, should not, and cannot be ignored.

Policy responses

There is no quick fix, or easy response. But it is now that we must re-commit, shuffle the cards and think anew. Let’s take as a point of departure the pursuit of a new, inclusive and sustainable growth model.

Leave no one behind

Governments everywhere must reinforce their social contracts with the goal that people should not be left behind. People need to be storm proofed from adversity. We need a renewed commitment to full employment. A social contract that must be the key to global and national economic growth policies, not just a bystander.

A fair deal at work

People must have a fair deal at work. We need a policy that promotes good jobs, not just any job aimed to improve the statistics but nothing more than that. Let’s together define what a good job is.

Regulate platforms

Platforms have swum through the regulatory gaps and are reaping the benefits of regulatory non-action. They have pushed the risk of the market away from themselves and onto the individual worker, whilst reaping the economic benefits of their business model. Its time to ensure that workers in all forms of work have the right to organise, to collective bargaining and to social protection. Policymakers need to act on this now.

Fair wages

Workers need a pay rise! Lets make it a national economic goal to raise the share of wages to where it was. The race to the bottom must stop. To this end, we need a commitment from businesses and states to extend collective bargaining coverage to all workers in the sector concerned.

Keep people in work

Giving workers, across all forms of work, the access to re- and upskilling must not be seen as a cost, but an investment. Having a multi-skilled, diversely-skilled labour force is the responsibility and obligation of governments and businesses. As digital change creates work changes, businesses should commit to keeping people in work and retrain and reskill them in due time. Pressing the dismiss button is all too easy and way too irresponsible. Workers must have the right to safe workplaces. Workplaces where our data is protected and free from algorithmic bias. One where humans, not robots, are in command.

Responsible business

We need to legislate for business to have a new purpose. Let’s reward those who show responsibility to all stakeholders, to our climate, our people and to the long term interests of us all. Let’s change the models of corporate governance and welcome other voices to a seat at the table. We cannot address the failures of today, without rebalancing our economies away from the short-termism that financialization has brought.

Revamp our social institutions

In a world of growing wealth, yet declining social cohesion, we require a floor of worker rights. We can do this. We need to revamp and strengthen our labour market institutions, so they embrace the fluidity of the market through new models of universal social protection.

Workers’ rights are human rights

The right for workers to join unions must be respected. We must embrace and once more encourage fair labour standards by improving the coverage of collective bargaining. In workplaces undergoing change, collective bargaining is the tool to ensure the just transition for working people. Dialogue has to transcend borders. We support the growth of global framework agreements between global unions and multinationals companies. Multinational companies should act in compliance with the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights and we look forward to a binding UN Treaty in this regard.

Taxes

Business and the wealthy must pay their fair share of taxes. Let’s close the tax loopholes, which allow 21 trillion dollars to sit in safe havens around the world. Let’s consider taxing the new intangible commodity of data flows.

What jobs?

We need to more to monitor the jobs at risk and where the jobs of tomorrow will be. We see many job opportunities in care, the green economy, and in the infrastructure surrounding new digital services. We must put in place long-term plans to ensure a just, reasonable and respectful transition for workers whose trades and skills will become obsolete

Embrace market diversity

We should look to rearm our competition authorities to question the dominance of a handful of companies. Their current and unprecedented economic, technical, innovative and ultimately social and democratic power must be curbed. We must allow the flourishing of the artisan economy from which much of our creativity and innovation stems.

Moving forward

Our call above is a call for the most comprehensive change of our times. We need new rules for a sustainable globalisation, for markets and for people. We have made the case for a new social contract, and why.

Let’s use the tools and pathways we have. The UN has its ambitious Sustainable Development Goals many of which reflect longstanding union policies to end poverty, ensure inclusive and equitable education and lifelong learning opportunities (SDG4), achieve gender equality (SDG 5), decent work (SDG 8) and reduce inequalities (SDG 10).

The G20 Employment Ministers in 2017 committed “to leave no one behind” and that breaches in basic labour rights should “not be part of the competition”.

We have the commitment to a just transition in the Paris climate change agreement.

The global unions have submitted a nine-point plan to the 2018 G20 summit in Argentina.

The answers are there but we are faced with a failure of political will to act. This failure to commit aggravates the crises in the world of work which has spilled over to our national democracies and the anger we see exploited by the populist right.

In 2019, the ILO will celebrate its centenary. The ILO was the author of the first global social contract based on its understanding that poverty anywhere was a threat to prosperity everywhere. They were clear that labour is not a commodity. Built from the ashes of the first world war and a time of revolution, the ILO through fair labour standards and promotion of rights to organise and negotiate, to have workplaces free of discrimination, to eliminate child and forced labour and by making clear the responsibilities of business to act in compliance with those standards, sought to put the human face of decent work in every workplace everywhere.

To mark its centenary, the ILO in 2017 established a Global Commission on the Future of Work. In January 2019 the ILO Commission will publish its findings. All ILO Member states have been requested to call national tripartite talks to discuss the report’s findings and to act on them.

If we can deliver a new social contract, then perhaps the 2020 doomsday clock will be further away from midnight than it is today. It’s in our hands.